Unwinding of CDOs

``The market is full of rumors of unwinding of CDOs, and the price action suggests that people believe the rumors,'' said Peter Duenas-Brckovitch, head of European credit trading at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London. ``It sort of has that Armageddon feel, and the market is feeding on itself.'' Everyone knows that homeowners insurance is designed to insure against fires and floods but few are familiar with credit default swaps, arcane financial instruments invented by Wall Street about ten years ago. Credit default swaps (CDS) were designed as “insurance” to reimburse banks and bondholders when companies failed to pay their debts. Credit default swaps have become so popular among banks that the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates banks, reports that they are the fastest growing derivatives product in the market, growing 19% from the second quarter to the third quarter last year to $14 trillion in value. The problem is, they are unregulated. Experts contend that, because credit default swaps have proliferated so rapidly, a hiccup in this market could set off a chain reaction of losses in financial institutions that will virtually dry up the banks' ability to lend. The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default soared to a record as investors purchased credit-default swaps to hedge against mounting losses in the $2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations. This is more than just a tempest in a teapot. Already AIG , the largest insurer in the United States , has had to deal with pricing and risk issues with its independent auditors on some of the credit default swaps it holds. Societe Generale, the French bank that recently reported losses from a rogue trader, also has problems with CDSs. "The purchase of assets originating from asset-management funds invested in credit-type underlyings could continue in the first quarter and, given the situation in the credit markets, lead to further write-downs," the bank warned. Credit Suisse was forced to raise the coupon on a $2 billion note it was offering after reporting writedowns of $1 billion in the first quarter of 2008 dealing with credit-default swaps. All of this must be leading to arguments between the boards of directors and their independent auditors at almost every major bank about the true value and risk of their credit-default swaps. The trouble is, they must have their 2008 reports signed off by their auditors and in the hands of the Comptroller of the Currency by February 28th , for the OCC's year-end report. The problem is, practically no one can get a handle on the true value of their credit-default swaps because they are thinly traded, have huge counter-party risk, are unregulated and are difficult to analyze.