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Israel, 48, told the judge that the idea of spending 20 years in prison was so distasteful he had considered suicide. But he eventually decided: "I have to take responsibility for my actions no matter what the consequences."That sentiment didn't last long. Within two months, federal investigators said, Israel settled on life as a fugitive. On the day he was to surrender, authorities said, he abandoned his sport utility vehicle on a bridge in the New York City suburbs, scratched "Suicide is Painless" in the dust on the hood to make it seem he had jumped, and skedaddled.
On Thursday, 10 days later, agents got their first big break when Debra Ryan, the girlfriend Israel left behind, told them she had helped him pack a recreational vehicle with his belongings and a motor scooter. Ryan was arrested and charged with helping Israel escape.
Authorities released a photo of the RV and its license plate number, and said Israel might be spotted at campgrounds or highway rest areas, possibly using the names Sam Ryan or David S. Clapp.Skepticism about his "suicide" started almost as soon as state police determined the vehicle belonged to Israel. When no body was found beneath the 150-foot-high bridge over the Hudson River, authorities said they suspected a ruse. So did investors who were hoping to get some of their money back.
"This is a very smart guy, a very crafty guy who was able to steal a lot of money from other smart people," said Ross Intelisano, an attorney for 20 investors in Israel's Bayou Group funds. "My gut tells me he's not the type to jump off a bridge."
Within a week, the search for a body was called off, and Israel was officially declared a fugitive. A "wanted" poster and other bulletins revealed his Social Security number, his bird tattoo and his aliases: Sam Ryan and David S. Clapp.
Israel's girlfriend at first told police that he left their Armonk house June 9 to drive to prison. He'd been expected at a federal penitentiary in Massachusetts for inmates with special health care needs.After Israel stopped on Bear Mountain Bridge, near West Point about 40 miles north of New York City, surveillance video showed a second car slowly pass his SUV and stop. Agents were hoping to enhance the images to find out what happened next. Federal officials refused to confirm reports that the driver of the second car has been questioned.They also won't go into detail about the search for Israel. But a former federal prosecutor said fugitives who carefully plan their getaways often leave clues behind."You have to be very thorough, very meticulous in setting up your escape," said Lawrence Barcella Jr., who is now a defense attorney specializing in white-collar crime. "But it's hard to do that without leaving some hint, some trail, about your thought process or even your destination."If he went online to find out about a place, if he called there on a cell phone, they can find that out. The advances in technology and all the security upgrades since 9/11 have made it much easier to track someone down," he said.
He said falsified travel documents would be available to someone with money, "but again, the government is much more sensitive to that now and much more sophisticated in the detection of that."It's much harder to leave the country now than it used to be."Agents will also apply old-fashioned pressure, potentially including threats of prosecution, to Israel's friends and associates, as they already have to the girlfriend."You know what they say, 'We have ways of making you talk,'" the former prosecutor said.Wherever he is, Israel probably won't be able to resume a life of conspicuous consumption if he wants to evade detection.
"You have to tone it down," Barcella said. "The more you spend, the easier you are to find. You also have to cut yourself off completely from your past. That means putting the people and places you love behind you."It takes a level of mental discipline. You can't even engage in those things that are familiar.
"If you love to go kayaking, you may not want to go kayaking because that's a profile the feds are going to have," Barcella said.
Hiding out might also be complicated by Israel's medical needs. He's had nine back surgeries, wears a pacemaker and is addicted to painkillers, according to prosecutors.Another path Israel could take is to settle in a country that does not have an extradition treaty with the United States.He could also flee to a place that is ill-equipped to deal with such a legal case or somewhere that might welcome his money.Jacob "Kobi" Alexander, who is accused of pocketing millions of dollars while manipulating stock options as chief executive of Comverse Technology Inc., has been living openly in Namibia with his family for two years. "Of course, Namibia's in the African desert," Barcella said. "It's not the Costa del Sol. On the other hand, it's not the federal penitentiary, either

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