Facebook's First Earnings Report Could Be a Huge Disappointment

Facebook (NYSE: FB  ) may not enjoy the 8.7% sequential revenue growth most analysts say it will when the company reports second-quarter results later this month. History says sales could instead fall by 3% or more. Wait. What? I'll understand if that raises some eyebrows. Those of you who've read my columns for a while know I'm generally positive on Facebook. You also know I'm also encouraged by a budding ad platform called Facebook Exchange, which uses browsing data to make display advertising more targeted. So when fellow financial writer Erik Sherman of CBS Money Watch found that the social network was attracting even fewer unique visitors per month than had been initially reported by Reuters, I was curious but not overly concerned. Instead, in an interview, I promised to take a closer look at Facebook's growth strategy before passing judgment. Well, Fool, I've run the numbers. They aren't good: